Mobile Ministry Magazine (MMM)

Posts Tagged ‘mobile in analytics’

That Ever-Evasive Calculation of Mobile ROI

Wednesday, May 23rd, 2012

Mobile ROI

Caught this on the 271st Carnival of the Mobilists (hosted by MobiThinking) and thought it just great to put into the stream of posts given the direction the past two have taken:

Many execs put items on their roadmap that their gut tells them are important, but it’s difficult to calculate the ROI.

While I agree that it’s impossible to calculate the exact ROI of soft ROI initiatives, I think you can calculate the ROI enough to objectively assess your priorities.

In fact, I think it’s critical that you do so. The mobile landscape is littered with too much wasted money because of executive gut decisions that didn’t end up the way they expected.

So, let’s walk through an example…

Read the rest of Mobile Roadmap: Calculating Hard ROI on Soft ROI Initiatives at Mobile Manifesto

In other words, it can be hard as counting black beans in the dark but its not impossible. A lot of how you determine that ROI starts from what you know and don’t know. Perhaps in light of the piece at Mobile Manifesto, these posts will help make your ROI calculation, and project viability measures, a bit easier to understand and work through:

 

2012 Mobile Global Market Update from Chetan Sharma Consulting

Tuesday, May 22nd, 2012

Chetan Sharma, a long-time and well respected voice in mobile, has recently published a report which paints a global picture of what’s happening in mobile not just in relation to itself, but also in relation to other large-scale trends and appliances which seem normal to many of us. The big picture summary of this report paints an interesting picture not just for mobile and connected spaces, but how economic factors will play a part in mobile as an avenue for ministry:

The global mobile industry is the most vibrant and fastest growing industry. We expect the total revenue in the industry to touch approximately $1.5 Trillion in 2012 with mobile data representing 28% of the mix. Mobile data services revenue stood at 33%. Global Mobile Data revenues eclipsed $300 Billion for the first time in 2011. It is also the first year in which non-messaging data revenues will make up the majority of the overall global data revenues at 53%.
 
By the end of 2011, the global subscriptions exceeded 6 Billion. The first 1 billion took over 20 years and this last one took only 15 months. The primary growth drivers are India and China which are cumulatively adding 75M new subs every quarter. China became the first country to eclipse the 1 billion mark in March 2012. India is likely to arrive at the milestone by early 2013.
 
Smartphones are driving tremendous growth around the globe. Amongst the major markets, US leads with 69% sales. The global figure stands at approximately 32%. Some operators expect 90-95% of their device sales to be smartphones in 2012. In terms of the actual smartphone penetration, we expect the US market to eclipse the 50% mark in 2012.
 
China leads in the number of subs but US dominates in both total and data revenue. A number of emerging nations are now in top 10 – Brazil, India, Russia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Mexico while once dominant – Korea, UK, Italy, Germany have dropped off or slipped in rankings.

A few of the facts highlighted in this report include

Total Global Subscriptions to exceed 7 Billion in early 2013
– China exceeds 1 Billion, India 950 Million. Subscriber growth is in Asia, Revenue growth is in Asia+North America
China and India represent 27% of subscriptions but only 12% of the global service revenues
– US represents only 6% of the subscriptions but 21% of the global service revenues, 26% of the data revenues, and 27% of the global CAPEX
Mobile Devices are now exceeding traditional computers in unit sales + revenue
– 70% of the device sales in the US are now smartphones. Device Replacement cycle is shrinking
Samsung and Apple now account for 50% of the smartphone unit share and 90% of the profit share
– Difficult environment for other OEMs esp. when ZTE and Huawei are coming strong from the bottom. It will be difficult for pure play device OEMs to survive long-term
Tablets (iPads) has created a new computing paradigm that is having a significant impact on commerce, content consumption, and developer investments
– Apple will continue to dominate the segment and iOS will be the leading OS for the segment. Amazon, ZTE, Huawei, to chip away at the sub-$200 tier.

To read this report in detail, visit Chetan Sharma Consulting’s website, where there is a PDF downloadable version of this report complete with graphics and other source data useful for analyzing this data.

Once you have gone through it, does anything stick out for you? Does any of the data presented alter your plans or current activities in mobile? 

View our complete listing of Resources and Statistics

 

Nice Set of Mobile Metrics/Stats from TNS Global, Learn the Present While Crafting the Future

Monday, May 7th, 2012

Woke up this morning to see many in the mobile tech world talking about this set of survey results (metrics and stats) from the folks at TNS Global.

What’s best to note about this data is the size and depth of it. There’s not just the usual “how many people could or do” but there’s some inspection into some of the trends of usage that can lead to some future applications. I like how Tomi Ahonen broke this down across some of the major trends, and where the financial opportunities lie for some of the lesser explored areas of mobile. In the near future, its those spaces in which the best prospects for disruptive growth will happen.

Now, I know that for some, it might be a bit far reaching to go beyond the present mobile/connected tech as a means to move the needle forward, but that’s just what we have to do. As I commented on this piece at Church Relevance, mobile apps isn’t the future for how engagement happens, its the now. What you do in the future is going to be in part determined to how you look at the now.

If you want our opinions towards how you should take data like this from TNS and build towards the future, it would simply look like this:

create the spaces where people want to engage their faith as if they were a craftsman: build the tools, create the sandboxes, and lessen the control grips.

There’s nothing too difficult about that. But, identifying the opportunity is why this data is needed.

 

Don’t Forget the Non-Smartphone Folks

Tuesday, February 28th, 2012

GetJar Screenshot for upcoming @mobileminmag article - Share on OviThinking about it some, yesterday’s post might have come across as if we were putting ebooks, literacy, and that neat community experiment only inside the frame of smartphones. Sure seems like it doesn’t it? Well, no. Everyone can do that, and your mobile efforts should take into account the capabilities of as many mobile devices as possible when you do those kinds of things.

And I know the refrain, many folks talking things up in mobile ministry have a working experience of what’s in their pockets – and that is often a smartphone. A random survey of just a few folks from the Mobile Ministry Forum pointed to just that. And it doesn’t mean that we are limited to knowing what’s in our pockets. Not everyone has had my experience of being a mobile device reviewer, or owning more than two mobile devices for most of their mobile life. So, There’s some forgiveness that has to be had when we do craft mobile solutions and it sounds like it only meets the needs of the most affluent amongst us.

You don’t see non-smartphones around you (I’ve heard that too)? So, whom are you around? Did you know that globally that about 30% of the mobile phones sold in the last year were smartphones – and that’s out of a total of 1.2 billion mobiles sold (Tomi Ahonen stats, Cellular News stats, Taipei Times). Or, if you are in the USA, you might say “yea, but it doesn’t look like that when I see on TV, in the cafe, etc. that so many have them.” You are right in some respect, of the mobiles sold in the USA, (I think we are just about at) 50% are smartphones (across the national carriers), and rarely are these sold with those persons that use pre-paid accounts (Nielsen). So, if you aren’t seeing them, there’s a question of context, half of the people you interact with will probably not have a smartphone. If you aren’t seeing that, you’ve got to check your associations.

And I know that those who work with/for content creators and media companies that smartphones are a much easier target. The browsers are better, there’s an app for that (grrr), and folks are willing to often flaunt that new device with a nifty case or sound. That’s no excuse though to just target them. We covered Phone Publish last month which is able to get content suitable for the smaller screened, lower-speced, non-smartphone folks, without keeping the content away from them (designing the user experience is harder, I’ll admit that much too). 

You want to push apps to everyone, check out GetJar. Get Jar is how many of us who have been doing mobile longer than the last half-decade are familiar with the concept of “app store.” You go to the site on your device, and it recognizes the device you are using and just shows the content that’s compatible with it. Simple right? If you follow the specs for the majority of devices which can download Java/Java-similar applications, then you’ve got a means to get in on those devices. There are other app stores (Nokia Store, Bada Store, etc.), but just wanted to hit on that one since it really does endeavor to hit the most devices.

Some stats are showing that – at least in some regions – that people are using mobile over PCs to get online. So, that really cool developer who wants to do something based on that pretty 22in monitor, tell them to take a few steps back. Concepts like responsive design, mobile website transcoding, etc. need to be looked at just as much as you observe that client requirement of “make it look good on my screen first.”

And if those folks aren’t able to get online, is your mobile strategy doing SMS (over 90% of mobiles are capable of doing text, nearly as many do multimedia (MMS) messages)? What about memory card swapping? Look back at that idea about a book fair, notice how we have a central librarian laptop that is able to serve those devices which might not have the ability to get content via WiFi, Bluetooth, or swapping memory cards. Your church might have gone mobile, but folks can’t go with you if they can’t get what you’ve moved forward with (Pew Internet, via Textually).

So, don’t forget folks who aren’t using what’s in your pocket. Its easy to do (trust me, personal experience like crazy here). You do your witness of the effects of the Gospel when you love on all of your brothers, not just those with the buttons and trinkets that look like you (1 Cor 1-3).

 

Lesson’s Mobify’s CEO Learned from Google

Friday, February 10th, 2012

If it seems as if we’ve been pulling from the list of contributors noted on the recent Carnival of the Mobilists, that’s only because these have been items also sitting in our periphery as notes to pay attention to as we derive some knowledge and wisdom about mobile which is applicable to mobile ministry. Sometimes, this just happens to intersect well with other’s views of what is important in mobile.

Another set of insights pulled comes from a report by Mobify’s CEO (Igor Faletski) relayed via GigaOm. These insights are important to us because MMM uses Mobify to transcode and deliver our mobile website (http://m.mobileministrymagazine.com). Where he is taking is platform, we eventually follow in some respect. So, in hearing some of the lessons he learned in a recent excursion with Google’s Mobilizing Mobile event, there just might be something we could gain as a movement going forward.

Here are the individual points (described as numbered lessons:

  1. Set the agenda
  2. Make your innovation tangible
  3. Focus, focus and focus
  4. Track the micro, decide on the macro
  5. Bringing it together

Read the details and examples of these ‘lesson points’ at the GigaOm article.

Our Reflections, Actions Forward
Its really easy to read something like this and just take it as another set of perspectives from a leader who’s gotten there and is basically setting the pace. But, we needed to go a bit futher here. How these lessons applied to MMM pushed forward some thoughts and initiatives that were already underway.

For example, one of the motions that we wanted to emphasize this year is that while we are in favor of the app movement many are prescribing towards in reference to going mobile, an app isn’t a strategy, and focusing on an app, or series of apps, would be a losing proposition with the kind of support we could push there (see how we explained about resource constraints with mobile apps/websites in a previous article. We decided therefore to decommission all of our mobile apps to an experimental status, and focus on cleaning up our use of WordPress so that we could be more readily accessible in a mobile format (see the Mobile/Web App Beta). There’s still a significant level of work needing to be done behind the scenes in terms of article categorization and dynamic page templates, but, not to the minute level of needing dedicated attention to each mobile platform out there. Will it take us longer to have a “solution?” You bet. Will we be better as a lighthouse for the extent of audiences we have here? Most definitely. That’s our focus, and the clarity we aim towards here.

Your steps might not be as drastic (then again…). What you need to decide as you are going down this path of being mobile, is that your success will hinge on the amount of planning, focus and execution that you can do or manage. If you are trying to control too much, however, you’ll find that the tentacles of mobile ministry will choke the purposes you initially had for your project, leaving you quite still in a mobile world.

 

Two Looks at the Context/Term ‘Advanced Mobile’

Friday, January 6th, 2012

Bubble_Chart_Top10_LargestTAMs, FlurryInitially, this post mentioned just the research and rankings by Tomi Ahonen; a later publication granted similar context with similar and different conclusions which combined with Ahonen’s insights grants considerable understanding towards current and future contexts of mobile on country levels. Therefore both of these are presented in a single post for relevance and compaative analysis.

Tomi Ahonen’s Ranking of Most Advanced Mobile Markets (by Country)
Tomi Ahonen (by virtue of his consultancy) tends to have all kinds of information which offer some measure of contextual relevance towards understanding mobile perspectices and trends. One of those that tends to cause all kinds of neat conversation has to do with his ranking of countries towards how advanced they are. He’s done this tanking for a few years (within his publications) and now offers this ranking again. Its not the most perfect (see the methodology quoted after the numbers, but should offer clear enough reasoning why approaching mobile from a “let’s evangelize the whole world at once approach” isn’t the best strategy.

Here’s his ranking (reformatted in a cleaner table layout):

Rank (2010) Country Index (%)
1 (1) Japan 91
2 (2) South Korea 89
3 (6T) Singapore 84
4 (3) Italy 83
5 (6T) Finland 82
6T (9) Sweden 81
6T (4T) Taiwan 81
8 (4T) Austria 80
9 (14) Hong Kong 79
10 (10T) Australia 78
11 (8) Israel 77
12 (10T) UK 76
13T (16T) Denmark 75
13T (15) Norway 75
13T (12) Spain 75
16 (22) UAE 73
17 (19) USA 72
18 (13) Ireland 71
19 (18) Netherlands 70
20 (16T) Germany 69

…This index is as far as I know, the only international comparative table that uses all the major metrics for the industry as inputs – ie I use the mobile phone penetration rate per capita, the migration rate to 3G networks, the adoption ie usage of mobile data (which typically is the adoption rate of SMS text messaging in most markets) and the measure of how advanced the handsets are in that country (which in most cases is the adoption rate of smartphones)…

*Emphasis ours

Read the rest of Tomi’s 2011 Mobile Phone Index Ranking posting.

Flurry’s Analysis of the Installed Base of Users for iOS and Android Devices
One of the most popular (and heard) metrics for ascertaining the relevance of mobile is to take a look at sales and activations numbers. And certainly these do have some redeeming value when looking at the “right now” action that is happening with mobile. However, concentrating on sales and activations misses the most signifiant statistic – how many devices are being used right now? And if there is only a percentage of those total sales or activations being used, what others kinds of information does this installed base give us that might better allow us to see the actual use of mobile, and the opportunities which might lie for mobile/mobile ministry endeavors?

The largest take on installed base research that I’ve seen to date seems to be this work compiled and recently published by Flurry.

Flurry validates their research by using several data points, most of which are available publically, and then cross-linking that against their metrics gained from the 140,000 applications which utilize their analytics software/services. Here’s a snippet of their report:

…Because this chart measures future potential, TAMs are much larger relative to active user bases.  The result, visually, is a lot more “light blue.”  Many of the world’s largest countries have largely un-penetrated markets, primarily due to standards of living (emerging markets) or increased competition for consumers’ disposable income (developed markets).  In either case, the TAM is there, but the adoption hasn’t yet occurred.  So, many of these markets are future bets with the time of maturity somewhat variable and unknown.  In this chart, the U.S. has both the largest current installed base and market upside.  Again, this is because of its unique, well-penetrated and large, affluent population.  Next China, given its very large population (1.3 billion), along with a growing middle class who has already begun adopting smart devices, has the world’s second largest market potential.  In comparison, even though India has the world’s second largest population (1.2 billion), its TAM is much smaller than China’s because of India’s very low standard of living.  The result is that, even though its total population is not far behind China’s, its total addressable market is.  Further, the adoption of smartphones and tablets among its TAM has been small.  Finally, Japan, the world’s fourth largest market, has a lot of upside given light penetration of iOS and Anroid devices against its large, addressable market..

Read the entire iOS/Android Installed Base report from Flurry

Takeaways/Conclusions
We titled this post Two Looks at the Context/Term ‘Advanced Mobile’ because the phrase finds itself often within conversations about mobile/mobile ministry. Being advanced is indeed one part functionality (Ahonen) and another part current/analyized use (Flurry). Aiming devices, services, and experiences to a mobile goal means that you have to keep in mind not just the trends (Ahonen) but also what’s happening that’s addressable. Aiming for smartphone users in the US makes sense because of the shape and prospects of the market. Using the same approach in Angola might not be a good bet. The context of what’s advanced mobility there or elsewhere has to seen in light of what’s actually happening.

Given the information above, shaping your mobile strategy for 2012 and beyond should be a good bit clearer.

 

2012 Resolution #1: An App is Not A Strategy

Monday, January 2nd, 2012

Welcome to 2012 and Mobile Ministry Magazine (MMM). Since 2004, we’ve talked a lot about this intersection of faith and mobile technology and how this has often looked like applications. We’ve talked about the good and bad about these applications, what has improved, and what still isn’t being touched. And yet there’s there is a pervasive resolution that I think you should endear to any mobile ministry efforts for 2012: an application is not a strategy.

We’ll summarize how we come to such a conclusion in this article. Some of these concepts have been covered before, other parts not yet in enough depth to give you a means to continue. But don’t worry, as we encourage you to step into 2012 with your mobile ministry efforts, the goal of this article is that you address mobile ministry as a spoke in a larger wheel of your efforts, no matter where you are in the chain.

This article focuses specifically on these points:

  • What is Mobile Ministry?
  • What are the specific areas in which mobile has addressed a ministry context?
  • Is there anything consistently applicable across those areas of mobile ministry?
  • If applications are part of the solution, what else is there?
  • What are some resources for applying these points?

What is Mobile Ministry

Mobile ministry is the application of mobile devices, services, and/or experiences for the purposes of forwarding ideals and characteristics of a faith movement.

Mobile computing has a market-led definition (portable, cellular and/or WiFi-enabled computing devices which have screen sizes between 2.2 and 5in, and have some form of primary input that is not mediated by accessory-attached mice/keyboards). We take the stance that mobile computing devices can include any portable computer that is not designed specifically as a clothing accessory.

Mobile services include, but are not limited singular applications of cellular (voice, data, SMS, multimedia), Internet (browsing, email, IM, VoIP, Wi-Fi, GPS), and applications (including the tools to create and distribute, API structures/protocols, development standards/practices, etc.).

Ministry is defined as any activity which forwards the ideals and characteristics of a faith movement, that may be personally motivated, community organized, and/or governmentally implemented.

This definiton is intentionally not grounded on any one religion/faith, and has been [slightly] refined from its more academic-correct beginnings. Discussions towards refining this further should be a part of any conversations brokering mobile as useful in ministry contexts.

Specific Areas of Ministry Applied in Mobile
Over the course of seven years, MMM has observed six specific applications of mobile technology within ministry contexts. This doesn’t mean that there are not, or could not be others. Within these six areas, we have identified unique approaches combining devices, services, and/or experiences which create avenues for personal, media, and cultural transformation through faith-binding activities.

These six areas are as follows:

We will further define and illustrate these areas throughout 2012. Please refer to former articles and presentations on this subject in order to see some of the progression of these ideas. We will endeavor to link to articles tagged with these topics in order to best consolidate the discussion on this site towards these points.

Layers of Mobile
We are careful not to simply define mobile in the context of devices or development. There are three components which encompass the mobile environment which all need to be considered and included within the context that is mobile computing:

  • Devices
  • Services
  • Experiences

We will further define these areas beyond our initial exploration of these throughout 2012. Please refer this article/document for a direct linking to that discussion.

Applications and Beyond
It should be clear within what we’ve explained so far that defining mobile ministry strictly or specifically in the context of downloadable applications is incomplete. Applications are only a part of the usable toolkit for mobile within ministry endeavors. Streams in which mobile can be developed/sold/applied within ministry contexts include:

  • Software Applications
  • Hardware Applications
  • Voice Services
  • Video/Audio (Streaming, Downloads, Sharing, etc.)
  • Text (SMS, language transcription, etc.)
  • Downloadable/Streaming Media (APIs, content libraries, etc.)
  • Mixed Media (creation, distribution, specifications, etc.)
  • Security
  • Reporting
  • Personalization

We will further define these areas throughout 2012.

Resources for Moving Forward

Conclusions: An App is not a Strategy, But…
We will not debate the point that for many endeavors, the first door that mobile will open is that through an application store. However, the first door seen is not the only door available. Depending on what it is you are developing, offering, or enabling, an application might not be the best point of entry.

For 2012, consider your opportunities and challenges within ministry, and whether mobile is the best route. If it is, then you will want to start looking at where you sit in terms of those areas of mobile, and then whether you are targeting devices, building a service, or managing an experience. After that point, it becomes clear how you should approach mobile. It may very well be that you do need an application – but now it will have a specific target, you can begin planning and setting up your team and content appropriately. If it means you need to outsource the development of your mobile solution, you do so with knowledge of more than simply “make it work on this device.”

At the intersection of faith and mobile technology, what are you pointing towards? In 2010, don’t let your strategy (or lack of one) turn mobile into a dead-end for your effort.

 

SMS the Most Used Mobile Phone Feature

Tuesday, December 27th, 2011

image of MMS from ShutterstockKeeping with yesterday’s meme about SMS (text messaging), we want to highlight some confirmed information care of Tomi Ahonen and his consulting services. I’ll let the work speak for itself:

That changed this week, as we received the brand new Ofcom study of international telecoms markets. They surveyed 5,636 consumers in six major countries on three continents and part of the usage survey were questions ‘do you use SMS on your mobile phone’ and ‘do you use voice calls on your mobile phone’ And for the first time we have solid comparable measurements.

The countries are all in the ‘Industrialized World’ and are Australia, France, Germany, Italy, the UK and the USA. They found SMS usage levels from a low of 64% in the USA to a high of 86% in Australia. They also found voice calls ranging from a low of 68% in Italy to a high of 80% in Germany. The population-weighed average of the six countries gives an average SMS usage level of 71.52% for SMS, vs 71.48% for voice calls. So these percentages are ‘per capita’ and not ‘per subscription’ by which more often SMS usage levels are reported. The actual human consumer ‘per capita’ measurement is more accurate obviously, as it ignores the phenomenon of multiple subscriptions and multiple phones on the same person. And we have massive news! We have JUST passed the tipping point.

First, on the measurement, if you prefer to use the statistic of ‘per subscriber’ rather than ‘per capita’ – then the subcription-weighed numbers are even more strongly in favor of SMS ie 72.4% vs 71.5%…

Read the rest of We Are Hitting Major Milestone: Time to stop calling it ‘mobile PHONE’ at Communities Dominate Brands.

Read the latest Communications Market Report at the Ofcom website.

Such a study should have some profound implications towards how you pursue efforts in mobile ministry. Not that you should forget your applications, nor that your mobile web efforts are worthless. You should do those, but to gain the best reach (and in some works that I have read in the past, the best response rates for your efforts), text messaging should be a signifying part of your planning.

“But, Antoine. If we do text, then we miss that face-to-face connection. And if we only see their heads down, then how will we know that the message reached them?” Always valid questions, however, these are borne in a sense of you not having control over the message’s end point. If you are fostering culture appropriate communication patterns, or at the worst adjusting to the changes in communication streams across economies and age groups, then this won’t be the problem as you will be able to get the feedback you desire, the face-to-face moments will happen. We are designed to connect to one another, anything that increases the friction to do so (yes, even forced meetings in small groups and social events) will degrade any ability to connect. SMS is such that it offers so little friction, that it flat out works. Add to that how cheap it is for most folks, and you have the activities which broker this report.

Take a look at the companies we list for SMS services, some are platforms, others allow you to build your own solution. Yes, it might take some more work, butch attention, until video (via MMS and web) becomes more normal than not, this is the route towards making your efforts count in less than 160 characters.

 

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