Mobile Ministry Magazine (MMM)

Archive for the ‘Future Trends’ Category

2012 Mobile Global Market Update from Chetan Sharma Consulting

Tuesday, May 22nd, 2012

Chetan Sharma, a long-time and well respected voice in mobile, has recently published a report which paints a global picture of what’s happening in mobile not just in relation to itself, but also in relation to other large-scale trends and appliances which seem normal to many of us. The big picture summary of this report paints an interesting picture not just for mobile and connected spaces, but how economic factors will play a part in mobile as an avenue for ministry:

The global mobile industry is the most vibrant and fastest growing industry. We expect the total revenue in the industry to touch approximately $1.5 Trillion in 2012 with mobile data representing 28% of the mix. Mobile data services revenue stood at 33%. Global Mobile Data revenues eclipsed $300 Billion for the first time in 2011. It is also the first year in which non-messaging data revenues will make up the majority of the overall global data revenues at 53%.
 
By the end of 2011, the global subscriptions exceeded 6 Billion. The first 1 billion took over 20 years and this last one took only 15 months. The primary growth drivers are India and China which are cumulatively adding 75M new subs every quarter. China became the first country to eclipse the 1 billion mark in March 2012. India is likely to arrive at the milestone by early 2013.
 
Smartphones are driving tremendous growth around the globe. Amongst the major markets, US leads with 69% sales. The global figure stands at approximately 32%. Some operators expect 90-95% of their device sales to be smartphones in 2012. In terms of the actual smartphone penetration, we expect the US market to eclipse the 50% mark in 2012.
 
China leads in the number of subs but US dominates in both total and data revenue. A number of emerging nations are now in top 10 – Brazil, India, Russia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Mexico while once dominant – Korea, UK, Italy, Germany have dropped off or slipped in rankings.

A few of the facts highlighted in this report include

Total Global Subscriptions to exceed 7 Billion in early 2013
– China exceeds 1 Billion, India 950 Million. Subscriber growth is in Asia, Revenue growth is in Asia+North America
China and India represent 27% of subscriptions but only 12% of the global service revenues
– US represents only 6% of the subscriptions but 21% of the global service revenues, 26% of the data revenues, and 27% of the global CAPEX
Mobile Devices are now exceeding traditional computers in unit sales + revenue
– 70% of the device sales in the US are now smartphones. Device Replacement cycle is shrinking
Samsung and Apple now account for 50% of the smartphone unit share and 90% of the profit share
– Difficult environment for other OEMs esp. when ZTE and Huawei are coming strong from the bottom. It will be difficult for pure play device OEMs to survive long-term
Tablets (iPads) has created a new computing paradigm that is having a significant impact on commerce, content consumption, and developer investments
– Apple will continue to dominate the segment and iOS will be the leading OS for the segment. Amazon, ZTE, Huawei, to chip away at the sub-$200 tier.

To read this report in detail, visit Chetan Sharma Consulting’s website, where there is a PDF downloadable version of this report complete with graphics and other source data useful for analyzing this data.

Once you have gone through it, does anything stick out for you? Does any of the data presented alter your plans or current activities in mobile? 

View our complete listing of Resources and Statistics

 

Nice Set of Mobile Metrics/Stats from TNS Global, Learn the Present While Crafting the Future

Monday, May 7th, 2012

Woke up this morning to see many in the mobile tech world talking about this set of survey results (metrics and stats) from the folks at TNS Global.

What’s best to note about this data is the size and depth of it. There’s not just the usual “how many people could or do” but there’s some inspection into some of the trends of usage that can lead to some future applications. I like how Tomi Ahonen broke this down across some of the major trends, and where the financial opportunities lie for some of the lesser explored areas of mobile. In the near future, its those spaces in which the best prospects for disruptive growth will happen.

Now, I know that for some, it might be a bit far reaching to go beyond the present mobile/connected tech as a means to move the needle forward, but that’s just what we have to do. As I commented on this piece at Church Relevance, mobile apps isn’t the future for how engagement happens, its the now. What you do in the future is going to be in part determined to how you look at the now.

If you want our opinions towards how you should take data like this from TNS and build towards the future, it would simply look like this:

create the spaces where people want to engage their faith as if they were a craftsman: build the tools, create the sandboxes, and lessen the control grips.

There’s nothing too difficult about that. But, identifying the opportunity is why this data is needed.

 

Wearables As A Mobile Ministry Approach

Monday, April 2nd, 2012

Ignite charlotte memor key bracelet ouside of Dilworth Coffeehouse Matthews, NC A few weeks ago, I was in the lineup as one of the speakers for Ignite Charlotte 4. The experience was pretty cool (5min, 20 auto-slides, talk about something you are passionate about), and afterwards, I received a ton of kudos for my talk and this branded, USB bracelet (picture). I thought that was a cool gift, as I’d been looking at acquiring a similar-functioning RoadID band for sometime. Yet, as I thought about it some more, I realized that something as simple as a branded bracelet that has some memory storage could be a very effective (passive) mobile ministry tool.

Remember back when we gave the definition of mobile ministry, there’s a piece of that definition that plays part here – technology and behaviors that forward the key ideals and traditions of (a) faith. What we have in this bracelet is a 1GB, computer connected, digital archive – with (!) branding and attention to livability (waterproof, shock resistant). Instead of simply handing me a pen with your church’s name on it, how much more powerful would a bracelet, that has a small archive of sermons, possibly a bible reader, and perhaps the contact information of the church (vCard or hCard format)?

There’s already the context of using microSD cards with materials on them as part of one’s mobile ministry strategy. But, what if we take out the expectation that a mobile device, or even a computer that’s owned, is the destination? What if we assume that someone might only want to engage with their faith-based software in the security of removable storage? Or better, what if it makes sense to those in our community whom are not as quick to think about what to do with a memory key or memory card, but could easily see the benefit (and fashion sense) of something like this bracelet which has unobtrusive branding, but underneath shows (by what’s included within) the attention to that person’s continued spiritual growth?

We’ve said in times past that wearable computing is one of the steps beyond mobile. Could you, or your community see something like this as the route forward towards marketing, engagement, and spiritual development?

 

Speak Unto That Object: Be Thou Computer

Wednesday, March 28th, 2012

Was speaking with my friend about an post that I’d done on my personal blog at the beginning of the year, and to contextualize things, I used the following Scripture (Mark 11:12-26):

…And on the morrow, when they were come from Bethany, he was hungry: And seeing a fig tree afar off having leaves, he came, if haply he might find any thing thereon: and when he came to it, he found nothing but leaves; for the time of figs was not yet. And Jesus answered and said unto it, “No man eat fruit of thee hereafter for ever.” And his disciples heard it.

And they come to Jerusalem: and Jesus went into the temple, and began to cast out them that sold and bought in the temple, and overthrew the tables of the moneychangers, and the seats of them that sold doves; And would not suffer that any man should carry any vessel through the temple. And he taught, saying unto them, “Is it not written, My house shall be called of all nations the house of prayer? but ye have made it a den of thieves.” And the scribes and chief priests heard it, and sought how they might destroy him: for they feared him, because all the people was astonished at his doctrine.

And when even was come, he went out of the city. And in the morning, as they passed by, they saw the fig tree dried up from the roots. And Peter calling to remembrance saith unto him, Master, behold, the fig tree which thou cursedst is withered away.

And Jesus answering saith unto them, “Have faith in God. For verily I say unto you, That whosoever shall say unto this mountain, Be thou removed, and be thou cast into the sea; and shall not doubt in his heart, but shall believe that those things which he saith shall come to pass; he shall have whatsoever he saith. Therefore I say unto you, What things soever ye desire, when ye pray, believe that ye receive them, and ye shall have them. And when ye stand praying, forgive, if ye have ought against any: that your Father also which is in heaven may forgive you your trespasses. But if ye do not forgive, neither will your Father which is in heaven forgive your trespasses.”

When I was a member of a particular church community in PA, they would use this Scripture often as a jumping off point to the power that a believer has to activate their fatih my speaking, believing, and acting. While I’ve got my own quibbles about the doctrines of “word-faith” approaches, I can appreciate the attention to the creative and instigative ability that God Himself used when taking objects that had no form, and after speaking, they became all that we know of as the earth and all that’s wihtin it (Genesis 1).

That article on my personal blog was about a similar approach to computing being taken on by Alvaro Cassinelli and Alexis Zerroug called invoked computing. You can think of this simply as invoking a specific context of computing to an object that might not by its nature have any computing ability. Invoked computing comes from taking the characteristics of a multi-modal, spatial augmented reality, and grafting it into a system which changes objects into (computational) communication devices. Here’s a snippet of their interview at The Guardian:

…In the invoked computing scenario, the object itself works as an “invocation” trigger and supports interactivity. We naturally looked for trigger-objects that are more or less pervasive in the real world, hence food-related items (the banana and pizza box). As triggers, they operate in ways similar to icons in a computer operating system: these are not the applications themselves, but keys to open them, to invoke them. On the other hand, real physical objects become the support for the interaction, provide surfaces on which to project images or sound.

So, in effect, you’re turning everyday objects into touchscreens?

Not exactly. The invoked computing project proposes systems to project “function” on real objects, but without making the interactive space resemble a screen with icons. Indeed, we are not trying to project icons or conventional representations of computer applications into the real world that when touched will launch a particular computing routine. Instead, affordances in the physical world itself should suggest and trigger function – even new, improvised functions….

Read the rest of You Really Can Use A Banana As A Telephone at The Guardian

This idea of invoked computing goes a good bit beyond mobile, and even further than simply “a computer for everyone and everyone with the ability to access whatever a computer terminal offers.” Inovked computing is about literally speaking and utilizing the activity of computers (linking, computation, creation, and communication) on objects which would not be normally associated with computing.

We can see this in part today with some of the USB items that you’d catch in a swag bag (USB bracelets that also tell time, or a rock that’s also a memory key). This goes a good bit further though. Invoked computing asks us to consider a reality where what we need from a computer is as close as what we speak out of our mouth. With such a reality, would we speak life and death as Jesus did with the fig tree, or would we move a mountain out of the way of someone else’s life so that they could see the path they were intended to travel a bit clearer?

What we do in mobile with Siri, Google Voice Commands, Vriingo, and such is going down this road. What kind of faith are we teaching people to have for their lives when more than just a question can be answered or a text sent is the result? What happens when we provoke a different kind of reallity into objects than what was originally designed?

~ video via Wired Magazine and DigiInfo.TV

 

We Told Ya, Now We Adjust With Ya

Monday, March 19th, 2012

old ad of Britannica encyclopediasThe news has been pretty steady since the Britannica announcement (via NY Times):

…After 244 years, the Encyclopaedia Britannica is going out of print.

Those coolly authoritative, gold-lettered reference books that were once sold door-to-door by a fleet of traveling salesmen and displayed as proud fixtures in American homes will be discontinued, company executives said.

In an acknowledgment of the realities of the digital age — and of competition from the Web site Wikipedia — Encyclopaedia Britannica will focus primarily on its online encyclopedias and educational curriculum for schools. The last print version is the 32-volume 2010 edition, which weighs 129 pounds and includes new entries on global warming and the Human Genome Project…

But, you’ve been reading here for sometime. This transition is something you’ve known about and have already adjusted your perspectives, behaviors, and tools towards.

Oh. You’re surprised?

Well, maybe we should talk some about how to help you or your publishing team/group transition to more/full digital approaches?

Going Digital But Not Losing Impression
Maybe its something easier for us to say since MMM started as a mostly-digital artifact. But, we get it. Some people don’t forsee changing, and are throughly offended if the emotional connection and appeal to this idea that bits and bytes can replace the acquisition and internalization of material via text. It takes massive cultural movements to consider and change to a different approach – and in some cases, you have to be throughly compelled.

That’s where you start thinking about it now though. What are the core characteristics of your content, of your relationship to your consumer audiences and your advertiser audiences? What does going digital (whether that’s mobile, social, or distribution methods) enable or hinder? Do you sense a loss of control to that core message, or the attachment to those audiences if you go digital? Are those fears grounded in reality (statistics, case reports, etc.) or on perceptions gleaned from your contexts (media, conversations, etc.)?

When we stopped creating a downloadable magazine, it was in part because of the time, energy, and resources that were essentially wasted for too small a return. Going digital distribution only we had to make some decisions on control (what if people could subscribe via email, RSS, SMS) and frequency (multiple times a day to once a day) alongside other considerations. In the end, this move works for us based on the needs of our audience. We’ve got more to do, and digital affords that in part without totally upending agreements, contracts… those logistical concerns. At the same time, we had to be firmer in what we wanted to do with this channel.

Britannica is making those same decisions. Logos (who’s cited in our previously linked 2011 report) has made and continues to make thesse changes. You’ve got to move forward, while keeping a clear sense of what made you valuable. Its not the smell of the paper, its what was on those pages that you offered that no one else could. Capture that in your digital transformation and watch digital be the ripe and fertile ground you’ve been looking for.

 

Technology Ratchets

Tuesday, March 6th, 2012

This might be a bit off the normal stream of topic, but given the posts framing around the Lutheran branch of Christianity, and then glue and sticks (can you see the connection) already posted this week, might as well throw something of a ratchet into things:

…Which all makes me wonder: Are we are destined to hit a point where our global intellectual capacity is so taken up with maintaining the technological status quo, that we will loose the capacity for further technological innovation?  Or even worse; are we heading for a technology innovation impasse ends up degenerating into an uncertain and unenlightened future?

I have to say, I’m not an optimist here – that is, unless we learn how to build effective technology ratchets.

A mechanical ratchet, as everyone knows, is a device that allows movement in one direction only. By comparison, a technology ratchet can be considered as something that allows technology development to move forward, but prevents or inhibits it from moving backward.  The idea is to find ways to hold onto ground gained through technology innovation, without having to constantly expend huge amounts of effort in doing so…

Read the rest of Why We Need Technology Ratchets at 2020 Science.

Truth be told, I sometimes feel MMM serves as a ratchet for some of you. Personally, there have been things done (living mobile, using a mobile web server, etc.) that have certainly felt a lot like this tech has indeed been a ratchet. For example, when’s the last time you heard us write on the topic of being “mobile only?” Saw Mobility Nigeria blogging about their experiences doing so and it kind kind of strikes me as a bit interesting that since going mobile-only (some background on that), we’ve not really turned back. In fact, anytime I’m asked to use a laptop these days (virtual conferencing and Visio/PowerPoint preferences), I get very aggitated and want to take an axe to the person(s) requesting such (antiquated to me) tools and behaviors. Similar feelings simmer when someone asks “hey, can you print from that iPad?” And I’m having to quickly process (see James 3) on finding their context of why they see printing as necessary. Its honestly that difficult to go back to a context of computing that I’ve gone away from.

Have any of you felt the same way? Perhaps in regards to when you first started replying to your office or family using mobile email and the resulting “crackbettery addict” conversation? Or, maybe it was you doing something so daring as bringinng a PDA/mobile to church and using that for Bible reading, then looking around at those with print Bibles and wondering why they insist on squinting at that 2in stack of paper? Or, whatever it was. There is some sense of technologies and behaviors adjusting or resetting our state of “normal” and now we move forward, or try to, in the midst of a greater community that’s slow to get the message.

Perhaps it wasn’t so off the stream of our topics afterall?

 

Where Is Your View on Mobile

Monday, February 13th, 2012

We get statements often when talking about MMM that people just don’t look at mobile in this light, but that it’s one that now they have to consider. You can’t blame this approach, much of our time is spent amongst people who live in such a way that faith and ethics plays an active role into most areas of their lives. That said, organizations always move slower than individuals, and so making a perception change on that level is a bit harder to broker. Then again, we do have folks like Tomi Ahonen, who tends to speak right to the heart of the matter for organizations:

…Despite the growing prevalence of mobile devices, Ahonen warns that the future isn’t going to be about mobile only, but about its role in cross-platform interactions. He says television, radio and other media won’t die, but that mobile will continue to grow as a complementary media channel that does other things like payments.

“US jewellers Tiffany’s e-commerce website wasn’t optimised for mobile. After optimising it, sales grew 125% from the website,” says Ahonen. He says this proves there isn’t going to be “one Internet”.

“The PC Web needs to be PC-optimised, the mobile needs to be mobile-optimised.”

Ahonen says in Japan all websites are designed for mobile first and that it should be the same in Africa.

In another example of the potential of mobile, Ahonen says in China mobile newspapers have converted 39% of their readers to pay for MMS news headlines. “’Tomorrow’s headlines today’ is the selling point.” China Mobile has 40m paying users on SMS- and MMS-based twice-daily headline services of branded newspapers’ headlines…

Kind of blunt, and frankly speaking, probably a bit further out there than most want to plan and work towards. Still, the facts about mobile are clear, and the implications of such a change on several aspects of society just can’t be ignored. We either see mobile for what it is, and what it will be; or, we wither under it hoping for some other kind of savior to communications and opportunity to live this faith we espouse towards.

 

Two Looks at the Context/Term ‘Advanced Mobile’

Friday, January 6th, 2012

Bubble_Chart_Top10_LargestTAMs, FlurryInitially, this post mentioned just the research and rankings by Tomi Ahonen; a later publication granted similar context with similar and different conclusions which combined with Ahonen’s insights grants considerable understanding towards current and future contexts of mobile on country levels. Therefore both of these are presented in a single post for relevance and compaative analysis.

Tomi Ahonen’s Ranking of Most Advanced Mobile Markets (by Country)
Tomi Ahonen (by virtue of his consultancy) tends to have all kinds of information which offer some measure of contextual relevance towards understanding mobile perspectices and trends. One of those that tends to cause all kinds of neat conversation has to do with his ranking of countries towards how advanced they are. He’s done this tanking for a few years (within his publications) and now offers this ranking again. Its not the most perfect (see the methodology quoted after the numbers, but should offer clear enough reasoning why approaching mobile from a “let’s evangelize the whole world at once approach” isn’t the best strategy.

Here’s his ranking (reformatted in a cleaner table layout):

Rank (2010) Country Index (%)
1 (1) Japan 91
2 (2) South Korea 89
3 (6T) Singapore 84
4 (3) Italy 83
5 (6T) Finland 82
6T (9) Sweden 81
6T (4T) Taiwan 81
8 (4T) Austria 80
9 (14) Hong Kong 79
10 (10T) Australia 78
11 (8) Israel 77
12 (10T) UK 76
13T (16T) Denmark 75
13T (15) Norway 75
13T (12) Spain 75
16 (22) UAE 73
17 (19) USA 72
18 (13) Ireland 71
19 (18) Netherlands 70
20 (16T) Germany 69

…This index is as far as I know, the only international comparative table that uses all the major metrics for the industry as inputs – ie I use the mobile phone penetration rate per capita, the migration rate to 3G networks, the adoption ie usage of mobile data (which typically is the adoption rate of SMS text messaging in most markets) and the measure of how advanced the handsets are in that country (which in most cases is the adoption rate of smartphones)…

*Emphasis ours

Read the rest of Tomi’s 2011 Mobile Phone Index Ranking posting.

Flurry’s Analysis of the Installed Base of Users for iOS and Android Devices
One of the most popular (and heard) metrics for ascertaining the relevance of mobile is to take a look at sales and activations numbers. And certainly these do have some redeeming value when looking at the “right now” action that is happening with mobile. However, concentrating on sales and activations misses the most signifiant statistic – how many devices are being used right now? And if there is only a percentage of those total sales or activations being used, what others kinds of information does this installed base give us that might better allow us to see the actual use of mobile, and the opportunities which might lie for mobile/mobile ministry endeavors?

The largest take on installed base research that I’ve seen to date seems to be this work compiled and recently published by Flurry.

Flurry validates their research by using several data points, most of which are available publically, and then cross-linking that against their metrics gained from the 140,000 applications which utilize their analytics software/services. Here’s a snippet of their report:

…Because this chart measures future potential, TAMs are much larger relative to active user bases.  The result, visually, is a lot more “light blue.”  Many of the world’s largest countries have largely un-penetrated markets, primarily due to standards of living (emerging markets) or increased competition for consumers’ disposable income (developed markets).  In either case, the TAM is there, but the adoption hasn’t yet occurred.  So, many of these markets are future bets with the time of maturity somewhat variable and unknown.  In this chart, the U.S. has both the largest current installed base and market upside.  Again, this is because of its unique, well-penetrated and large, affluent population.  Next China, given its very large population (1.3 billion), along with a growing middle class who has already begun adopting smart devices, has the world’s second largest market potential.  In comparison, even though India has the world’s second largest population (1.2 billion), its TAM is much smaller than China’s because of India’s very low standard of living.  The result is that, even though its total population is not far behind China’s, its total addressable market is.  Further, the adoption of smartphones and tablets among its TAM has been small.  Finally, Japan, the world’s fourth largest market, has a lot of upside given light penetration of iOS and Anroid devices against its large, addressable market..

Read the entire iOS/Android Installed Base report from Flurry

Takeaways/Conclusions
We titled this post Two Looks at the Context/Term ‘Advanced Mobile’ because the phrase finds itself often within conversations about mobile/mobile ministry. Being advanced is indeed one part functionality (Ahonen) and another part current/analyized use (Flurry). Aiming devices, services, and experiences to a mobile goal means that you have to keep in mind not just the trends (Ahonen) but also what’s happening that’s addressable. Aiming for smartphone users in the US makes sense because of the shape and prospects of the market. Using the same approach in Angola might not be a good bet. The context of what’s advanced mobility there or elsewhere has to seen in light of what’s actually happening.

Given the information above, shaping your mobile strategy for 2012 and beyond should be a good bit clearer.

 

Distilling the Perspective of Prediction

Tuesday, January 3rd, 2012

image of Old Testament prophet, painting, via MormonInfo.orgIts the new year, and therefore time to hear and wade through all of the predictions for the coming year(s) in mobile. Well, there are some which are better than others, and definitely a means of weeding though it all. Here’s a snippet towards how I tend to walk through these statements:

I was passed a link via email recently which spoke (lightly) about smartphones in the coming years. I disagreed with the sentiment that it was a worthwhile prediction as the article-interview left no context behind the person’s statement. Still, I think it was a healthy exercise to pay attention to in the coming weeks as many will be predicting much, and there needs to be some way to get through the noise.

This is what was sent to me:
Marc Andreessen [speaks to CNet] about what the major technology trend(s) will be in 2012 & beyond. In a nutshell, it boils down to smartphones.

Read the rest of Distilling the Perspective of Prediction at Blog.AntoineRJWright.

Takeaways:

  • Anything that’s predicted in respect to technology can be easily fact-checked against news, stats, and other analysts in that position
  • Be wary of biases towards predicting what will/won’t come next. Bias is always present, sometimes its more influential than some would have you believe
  • Pull a Jeremiah 23 and just wait – if the word comes to pass, then observe them for future prognostigations; if not, don’t be ashamed to stop listening to them – I wouldn’t recommend throwing stones unless you have your ducks in a row

Now, that’s all easy to say when you have time to wade through the news, fact-check and such, but “who has time for all of that?” I would admonish you to be just as much a Berean in terms of news and views as you are of the Scriptures. Those following your activites in this life would gain much from your ability to take a stance and walk your way through understanding it.

 

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